12th Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling in Infectious Diseases (SISMID)


Module 6: Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Session 2: Wed Jul 15 to Fri Jul 17
Instructor(s):

Module dates/times: Wednesday, July 15; Thursday, July 16, and Friday, July 17. Live sessions will start no earlier than 8 a.m. Pacific and end no later than 2:30 p.m. Pacific, except for Wednesdays. For modules that end on Wednesday, live sessions will end by 11 a.m. Pacific. For modules that start on Wednesday, live sessions will begin no earlier than 11:30 a.m.

Prerequisites: This module assumes knowledge of the material in Module 1: Probability and Statistical Inference, though not necessarily from taking that module.

The course first studies some basic stochastic models for the spread of an infectious disease and presents large population results for them including threshold phenomenon (Ro), distribution of the final number infected, and the critical vaccination coverage (the fraction needed to vaccinate to avoid future epidemics). Several extensions towards realism are then discussed: different types of individuals and social structures in the community including households and networks.

Then focus shifts towards statistics and how to obtain estimates of relevant model parameters from epidemic data. The course will give the theoretical background but also numerous examples from empirical situations including estimation of various vaccine efficacies. There will be class exercises during the course.