Prerequisites: Students are expected to have a working knowledge of the R computing environment. Programming will be in R. Students new to R should complete a tutorial before the module.

This module covers the principles of dynamic models of infectious diseases. This module will focus on developing and analyzing compartmental models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Topics include deriving the basic reproductive ratio using the next generation method, incorporating different mechanisms of heterogeneity in transmission (for instance, age-structure, behavior or seasonality), formulating exact stochastic birth-death models, carrying out sensitivity analysis and statistical fitting of simple models to data. The module will alternate between lectures and computer labs.

Background Reading: Keeling & Rohani (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press.